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PHYLODYNAMICS OF THE HIV-1 EPIDEMIC IN CUBA
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Affilliation
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de AIDS e Imunologia Molecular. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de AIDS e Imunologia Molecular. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de AIDS e Imunologia Molecular. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Abstract
Previous studies have shown that the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba displayed a complex molecular epidemiologic profile with
circulation of several subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRF); but the evolutionary and population history of
those viral variants remains unknown. HIV-1 pol sequences of the most prevalent Cuban lineages (subtypes B, C and G,
CRF18_cpx, CRF19_cpx, and CRFs20/23/24_BG) isolated between 1999 and 2011 were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood
analyses revealed multiple introductions of subtype B (n$66), subtype C (n$10), subtype G (n$8) and CRF18_cpx (n$2)
viruses in Cuba. The bulk of HIV-1 infections in this country, however, was caused by dissemination of a few founder strains
probably introduced from North America/Europe (clades BCU-I and BCU-II), east Africa (clade CCU-I) and central Africa (clades
GCU, CRF18CU and CRF19CU), or locally generated (clades CRFs20/23/24_BG). Bayesian-coalescent analyses show that the
major HIV-1 founder strains were introduced into Cuba during 1985–1995; whereas the CRFs_BG strains emerged in the
second half of the 1990s. Most HIV-1 Cuban clades appear to have experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread
during the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a more recent decline in growth rate. The median initial growth rate of HIV-1
Cuban clades ranged from 0.4 year21 to 1.6 year21. Thus, the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba has been a result of the successful
introduction of a few viral strains that began to circulate at a rather late time of the AIDS pandemic, but then were rapidly
disseminated through local transmission networks.
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