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POTENTIAL IMPACT OF INDIVIDUAL EXPOSURE HISTORIES TO ENDEMIC HUMAN CORONAVIRUSES ON AGE-DEPENDENT SEVERITY OF COVID-19
SARS-CoV-2
Coronavírus endêmicas
Reatividade cruzada
Imunopatologia
Modelo matemático
Dinâmica de doenças infecciosas
Modelo individual
SARS-CoV-2
Endemic coronaviruses
Cross-reactivity
Immunopathology
Mathematical model
Infectious disease dynamics
Individual-based model
Autor
Afiliación
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
Independent Consultant. London, England.
Tel Aviv University. School of Public Health. Tel Aviv, Israel / Tel Aviv University. Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences. Tel Aviv, Israel.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Pediatria. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, TJ, Brasil.
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, TJ, Brasil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
Independent Consultant. London, England.
Tel Aviv University. School of Public Health. Tel Aviv, Israel / Tel Aviv University. Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences. Tel Aviv, Israel.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Pediatria. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, TJ, Brasil.
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, TJ, Brasil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK.
Resumen en ingles
Background: Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results: We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions: This study provides a “proof of possibility” for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing.
Palabras clave en portugues
COVID-19SARS-CoV-2
Coronavírus endêmicas
Reatividade cruzada
Imunopatologia
Modelo matemático
Dinâmica de doenças infecciosas
Modelo individual
Palabras clave en ingles
COVID-19SARS-CoV-2
Endemic coronaviruses
Cross-reactivity
Immunopathology
Mathematical model
Infectious disease dynamics
Individual-based model
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