Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/13225
Title: Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change
Authors: Carvalho, Bruno M.
Rangel, Elizabeth F.
Ready, Paul D.
Vale, Mariana M.
Affilliation: Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Entomológica em Díptera e Hemíptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom / Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Entomológica em Díptera e Hemíptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom.
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Abstract: Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios. Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”. Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions. Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission dynamics matching those in the Amazon region.
Keywords: Leishmania amazonensis
South America
Climate Change
Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata
Ecological Niche
keywords: Leishmania
América do Sul
Díptera
Mudança climática
Vetores
Nicho ecológico
Issue Date: 2015
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Citation: CARVALHO, Bruno M. et al. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change. Plos One, v.10, n.11, e0143282, 21p, Nov. 2015.
DOI: 10.1371/ journal.pone.0143282
ISSN: 1932-6203
Copyright: open access
Appears in Collections:IOC - Artigos de Periódicos

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