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RISK ASSESSMENT AND RATIONALIZATION OF HEALTH RESOURCE ALLOCATION: LESSONS FROM THE BRAZILIAN COVID-19 COHORT IN 2020
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Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Pesquisa Clínica em DST/AIDS. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Pesquisa Clínica em DST/AIDS. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Abstract
On December 31st, 2019, the World Health Organization was alerted to several cases of pneumonia in China. The coronavirus spread rapidly throughout China, and subsequently infected patients were identified in other countries in Europe, the United States, Canada, and Brazil. On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared the disease a global pandemic. Initial reports suggested that the severity of illness was associated with advanced age and the presence of underlying health conditions. In 2020, Brazil recorded 6⋅5 million cases of SARS-CoV-2, of which 104,000 were either severe or critical infections that required hospitalization, ventilatory support, or intensive care. By May 22nd, 2021, Brazil has accumulated 15,732,836 cases and had 439,050 deaths confirmed, with an expressive increase in the number of cases and deaths attributed, both to difficulties in imposing social distancing policies on the population, and to the emergence of new, more virulent SARS-CoV-2 variants. So far, almost all states have experienced, for some period, greater demand than supply from their health systems. The overloaded health systems have generated queues for hospital beds and medical care and depleted stocks of hospital oxygen and medications used for orotracheal intubation of patients in intensive care units.
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