This article offers a simple predictive model of physical intimate partner violence (PIPV) to be used by primary health care (PHC) professionals. The sample comprised 811 mothers of children<5 months old attending PHC facilities in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A multinomial logit model was used. Measured by the Revised Conflict Tactics Scales, PIPV was classified in three levels (absence, at least one episode during preg-nancy or postpartum, and presence in both periods). Socio-economic, demographic and life style variables were considered as potential predictors. Maternal age<20 years, an education of<8 years of schooling, raising>2 children under 5, tobacco smoking, alcohol misuse and illicit drug use by the mother and/or partner, and perception of baby’s ill-health were identified as predictors of PIPV. The model-projected prevalence of PIPV for pregnancy and/or postpartum was just 10.1% in the absence of these characteristics, whereas this increased to 96.4% when all the seven characteristics were present. Child, maternal and family characteristics greatly increase the likelihood of PIPV and could be used together as screening indicators.