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MODELLING ADULT AEDES AEGYPTI AND AEDES ALBOPICTUS SURVIVAL AT DIFFERENT TEMPERATURES IN LABORATORY AND FIELD SETTINGS
Survival
Temperature
Mortality
Longevity
Modelling
Mark-release-recapture
Dengue
Transmission
Generalised additive models
Author
Affilliation
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Division of Vector-Borne Diseases. Dengue Branch. San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
CIRAD, UMR PVBMT, 97410, Saint Piarre, la Réunion, France.
Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco. Laboratorio de Investigaciones en Ecología y Sistemática Animal (LIESA). Chubut, Argentina.
University of Maryland. Department of Environmental Science & Technology. College Pard, MD, USA.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Transmissores de Hematozoários. Rio de Janeiro, RJ. Brasil.
New York State Department of Health. Wadsworth Center. Albany, NY, USA.
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology. Baltimore, MD, USA / National Institutes of Health. Fogarty International Center. Bethesda, MD, USA.
University of California Davis. Department of Entomology. Davis, CA, USA / National Institutes of Health. Fogarty International Center. Bethesda, MD, USA.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK / National Institutes of Health. Fogarty International Center. Bethesda, MD, USA.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Division of Vector-Borne Diseases. Dengue Branch. San Juan, Puerto Rico, USA.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
CIRAD, UMR PVBMT, 97410, Saint Piarre, la Réunion, France.
Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco. Laboratorio de Investigaciones en Ecología y Sistemática Animal (LIESA). Chubut, Argentina.
University of Maryland. Department of Environmental Science & Technology. College Pard, MD, USA.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Transmissores de Hematozoários. Rio de Janeiro, RJ. Brasil.
New York State Department of Health. Wadsworth Center. Albany, NY, USA.
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology. Baltimore, MD, USA / National Institutes of Health. Fogarty International Center. Bethesda, MD, USA.
University of California Davis. Department of Entomology. Davis, CA, USA / National Institutes of Health. Fogarty International Center. Bethesda, MD, USA.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group. Oxford, UK / National Institutes of Health. Fogarty International Center. Bethesda, MD, USA.
Abstract
Background: The survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes is a critical component of their ability to transmit
pathogens such as dengue viruses. One of the principal determinants of Aedes survival is temperature, which has
been associated with seasonal changes in Aedes populations and limits their geographical distribution. The effects
of temperature and other sources of mortality have been studied in the field, often via mark-release-recapture
experiments, and under controlled conditions in the laboratory. Survival results differ and reconciling predictions
between the two settings has been hindered by variable measurements from different experimental protocols, lack
of precision in measuring survival of free-ranging mosquitoes, and uncertainty about the role of age-dependent
mortality in the field.
Methods: Here we apply generalised additive models to data from 351 published adult Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus
survival experiments in the laboratory to create survival models for each species across their range of viable temperatures.
These models are then adjusted to estimate survival at different temperatures in the field using data from 59 Ae. aegypti
and Ae. albopictus field survivorship experiments. The uncertainty at each stage of the modelling process is propagated
through to provide confidence intervals around our predictions.
Results: Our results indicate that adult Ae. albopictus has higher survival than Ae. aegypti in the laboratory and field,
however, Ae. aegypti can tolerate a wider range of temperatures. A full breakdown of survival by age and temperature
is given for both species. The differences between laboratory and field models also give insight into the relative
contributions to mortality from temperature, other environmental factors, and senescence and over what ranges these
factors can be important.
Conclusions: Our results support the importance of producing site-specific mosquito survival estimates. By including
fluctuating temperature regimes, our models provide insight into seasonal patterns of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus
population dynamics that may be relevant to seasonal changes in dengue virus transmission. Our models can be
integrated with Aedes and dengue modelling efforts to guide and evaluate vector control, better map the distribution
of disease and produce early warning systems for dengue epidemics.
Keywords in Portuguese
TransmissãoKeywords
AedesSurvival
Temperature
Mortality
Longevity
Modelling
Mark-release-recapture
Dengue
Transmission
Generalised additive models
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