| Autor | Lourenço, José | |
| Autor | Maia de Lima, Maricelia | |
| Autor | Faria, Nuno Rodrigues | |
| Autor | Walker, Andrew | |
| Autor | Kraemer, Moritz U. G. | |
| Autor | Villabona-Arenas, Christian Julian | |
| Autor | Lambert, Ben | |
| Autor | Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques de | |
| Autor | Pybus, Oliver G. | |
| Autor | Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Júnior | |
| Autor | Recker, Mario | |
| Data de acesso | 2017-10-17T16:47:08Z | |
| Data de disponibilização | 2017-10-17T16:47:08Z | |
| Data do publicação | 2017 | |
| Citação | LOURENÇO, José et al. Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting. eLife, v. 6, p. 1-47, 2017. | |
| URI | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/22849 | |
| Idioma | eng | en_US |
| Editor | eLife Sciences Publications | |
| Versão posterior | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/23185 | |
| Direito Autoral | open access | |
| Palavras-chave | Zika Virus | pt_BR |
| Palavras-chave | Saúde pública | pt_BR |
| Palavras-chave | Epidemiologia | pt_BR |
| Palavras-chave | Transmissão | pt_BR |
| Palavras-chave | Microcefalia | pt_BR |
| Título | Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting | en_US |
| Tipo do documento | Preprint | |
| DOI | 10.7554/eLife.29820 | |
| Resumo em Inglês | The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of in this urban setting. | en_US |
| Afiliação | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | |
| Afiliação | Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil. | |
| Afiliação | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | |
| Afiliação | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | |
| Afiliação | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | |
| Afiliação | Université de Montpellier. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement. Institut de Biologie Computationnelle. Montpellier, France. | |
| Afiliação | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | |
| Afiliação | Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Centre of Post Graduation in Collective Health. Department of Health. Feira de Santana, BA, Brazil. | |
| Afiliação | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | |
| Afiliação | Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil. | |
| Afiliação | University of Exeter. Centre for Mathematics and the Environment. Penryn, United Kingdom. | |
| Documento revisado | Não | |
| Status da publicação | Publicado | |
| xmlui.metadata.dc.subject.ods | 03 Saúde e Bem-Estar | |
