| Author | O’Reilly, Kathleen M. | |
| Author | Lowe, Rachel | |
| Author | Edmunds, W. John | |
| Author | Mayaud, Philippe | |
| Author | Kucharski, Adam | |
| Author | Eggo, Rosalind M. | |
| Author | Funk, Sebastian | |
| Author | Bhatia, Deepit | |
| Author | Khan, Kamran | |
| Author | Kraemer, Moritz U. G. | |
| Author | Wilder-Smith, Annelies | |
| Author | Rodrigues, Laura C. | |
| Author | Brasil, Patricia | |
| Author | Massad, Eduardo | |
| Author | Jaenisch, Thomas | |
| Author | Cauchemez, Simon | |
| Author | Brady, Oliver J. | |
| Author | Yakob, Laith | |
| Access date | 2019-01-15T13:48:57Z | |
| Available date | 2019-01-15T13:48:57Z | |
| Document date | 2018 | |
| Citation | O’Reilly, Kathleen M. et al. Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis. BMC Medicine, v. 16, n. 180, p. 1-13, Oct. 2018. | pt_BR |
| ISSN | 1741-7015 | pt_BR |
| URI | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/31037 | |
| Sponsorship | This work was partially supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under ZIKAlliance Grant Agreement no. 734548 and ZikaPLAN Grant Agreement No 734584. RL was funded by a Royal Society Dorothy Hodgkin Fellowship. AK was funded by a Sir Henry Dale Fellowship jointly funded by the Wellcome Trust and the Royal Society (grant Number 206250/Z/17/Z). OJB was funded by a Sir Henry Wellcome Fellowship funded by the Wellcome Trust (grant number 206471/Z/17/Z). SC was funded by the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), the Models of Infectious Disease Agent Study of the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and the AXA Research Fund. MUGK is supported by The Branco Weiss Fellowship - Society in Science, administered by the ETH Zurich and acknowledges funding from a Training Grant from the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (T32HD040128) and the National Library of Medicine of the National Institutes of Health (R01LM010812, R01LM011965). The funders had no role in in the design of the study, the collection, analysis and interpretation of data, or in writing the manuscript. | |
| Language | eng | pt_BR |
| Publisher | BioMed Central | pt_BR |
| Rights | open access | pt_BR |
| Title | Projecting the end of the Zika virus epidemic in Latin America: a modelling analysis | pt_BR |
| Type | Article | pt_BR |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12916-018-1158-8 | |
| Abstract | Background: Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries. Methods: Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 countries. Seasonality was determined by spatio-temporal estimates of Aedes aegypti vectorial capacity. We used country and state-level data from 2015 to mid-2017 to infer key model parameters, country-specific disease reporting rates, and the 2018 projected incidence. A 10-fold cross-validation approach was used to validate parameter estimates to out-of-sample epidemic trajectories. Results: There was limited transmission in 2015, but in 2016 and 2017 there was sufficient opportunity for wide-spread ZIKV transmission in most cities, resulting in the depletion of susceptible individuals. We predict that the highest number of cases in 2018 would present within some Brazilian States (Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro), Colombia and French Guiana, but the estimated number of cases were no more than a few hundred. Model estimates of the timing of the peak in incidence were correlated (p < 0.05) with the reported peak in incidence. The reporting rate varied across countries, with lower reporting rates for those with only confirmed cases compared to those who reported both confirmed and suspected cases. Conclusions: The findings suggest that the ZIKV epidemic is by and large over within LAC, with incidence projected to be low in most cities in 2018. Local low levels of transmission are probable, but the estimated rate of infection suggests that most cities have a population with high levels of herd immunity. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom / Barcelona Institute for Global Health. Barcelona, Spain. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Clinical Research. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Toronto. Division of Infectious Diseases. Toronto, ON, Canada / St Michael’s Hospital. Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute. Centre for Research on Inner City Health. Toronto, ON, Canada. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Toronto. Division of Infectious Diseases. Toronto, ON, Canada / St Michael’s Hospital. Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute. Centre for Research on Inner City Health. Toronto, ON, Canada. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Harvard University. Harvard Medical School. Boston, MA, United States / Boston Children’s Hospital. Boston, MA, United States / University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom / Umea University. Department of Medicine and Public Health. Umea, Sweden / University of Heidelberg. Institute of Public Health. Heidelberg, Germany. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Fundação Getúlio Vargas. Escola de Matemática Aplicada. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Heidelberg. Department for Infectious Diseases and Parasitology. Department for Infectious Diseases. Heidelberg, Germany / University of Heidelberg. Department for Infectious Diseases. Heidelberg, Germany. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Institut Pasteur. Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit. Paris, France / Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique. Paris, France / Institut Pasteur. Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology. Paris, France. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom / London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Subject | Zika virus | pt_BR |
| Subject | Epidemic | pt_BR |
| Subject | Mathematical modelling | pt_BR |
| Subject | Latin America and the Caribbean | pt_BR |
| Subject | Connectivity | pt_BR |
| e-ISSN | 1741-7015 | |
| xmlui.metadata.dc.subject.ods | 03 Saúde e Bem-Estar | |
