Author | Guimarães, Raphael Mendonça | |
Author | Silva, José Henrique Costa Monteiro da | |
Author | Brusse, Gustavo Pedroso de Lima | |
Author | Martins, Thalyta C´assia de Freitas | |
Access date | 2022-04-30T02:31:49Z | |
Available date | 2022-04-30T02:31:49Z | |
Document date | 2021 | |
Citation | GUIMARÃES, Raphael Mendonça et al. Effect of physical distancing on Covid-19 incidence in Brazil: does the strictness of mandatory rules matter? Health Policy and Planning, v. 00, p. 1-8, 2021. | pt_BR |
ISSN | 0268-1080 | pt_BR |
URI | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/52475 | |
Sponsorship | This work was supported by Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Programa INOVA—COVID Resposta R´ apida [Grant VPPIS- 005-FIO-20-2-47]. Ethical approval. Ethical approval is not required for this research, due to the public source of data. | pt_BR |
Language | eng | pt_BR |
Publisher | Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine | pt_BR |
Rights | open access | pt_BR |
Title | Effect of physical distancing on Covid-19 incidence in Brazil: does the strictness of mandatory rules matter? | pt_BR |
Type | Article | pt_BR |
DOI | 10.1093/heapol/czab110 | |
Abstract | This study aims to examine the association between physical distancing measures and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) incidence among Brazilian states. We divided the methodology was divided into three steps. In the first step, we used nationwide global positioning system daily data to estimate country and state-level physical distancing and examined the association with COVID-19 incidence through a Generalized Additive Model. Secondly, using National Household Sample Survey COVID19 data, a cluster analysis categorized the Brazilian states into different categories of physical distancing policies promoting adoption and political inclination of their governments. Finally, through a Poisson Regression Model, we examined the association of state physical distancing with variables related to the socio-economic situation, test coverage and early adoption of policies promoting physical distancing of each state. Physical distancing effects on reduction of COVID-19 spread are heterogeneous among states. Estimation of incidence rate ratio (IRR) suggests that in a scenario of 100% of social isolation incidence of COVID-19 will have reached approximately only 2.6% of the magnitude compared to when there is no social isolation for Brazil [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.8–8.3]. Only a 10% increase in Social Isolation Index in the country could have reflected in a 30.5% decrease in number of cases in 14 days. Adoption of physical distancing was associated with test coverage (IRR 0.976, 95% CI 0.973–0.979), home office (IRR 1.042, 95% CI 1.039–1.046), informal work proportion (IRR 0.961, 95% CI 0.958–0.965), political spectrum (IRR 0.961, 95% CI 0.958–0.965) and early moment of restrictive politics implementation (IRR 1.017, 95% CI 1.013–1.021). Physical distancing measures play a crucial role in mitigating the pandemic’s spread. These analyses are crucial to support government decisions and improve the community’s adherence to preventive measures. | pt_BR |
Affilliation | Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Presidency. Fiocruz Observatory Covid-19. Brazil, RJ, Brasil. | pt_BR |
Affilliation | CELADE. Population Division of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Santiago de Chile, Chile. | pt_BR |
Affilliation | University of Campinas. Campinas, SP, Brazil. | pt_BR |
Affilliation | Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. National School of Public Health. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. | pt_BR |
Subject | COVID-19 | pt_BR |
Subject | Incidence | pt_BR |
Subject | Physical distancing | pt_BR |
Subject | Time series | pt_BR |
Subject | Brazil | pt_BR |