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https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/11008
SPATIAL MODELING OF THE SCHISTOSOMIASIS MANSONI IN MINAS GERAIS STATE, BRAZIL USING SPATIAL REGRESSION
Generalized proximity matrices
Spatial analysis
Regression analysis
Schistosomiasis mansonia
Author
Affilliation
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Leônidas e Maria Deane. Manaus, AM, Brazil
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brazil
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Laboratorio de Esquistossomose. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais.São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Evandro Chagas. Ananindeua, PA, Brazil
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Laboratorio de Esquistossomose. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Abstract
Schistosomiasis is a transmissible parasitic disease caused by the etiologic agent Schistosoma mansoni,whose intermediate hosts are snails of the genus Biomphalaria. The main goal of this paper is to estimatethe prevalence of schistosomiasis in Minas Gerais State in Brazil using spatial disease information derivedfrom the state transportation network of roads and rivers. The spatial information was incorporated intwo ways: by introducing new variables that carry spatial neighborhood information and by using spatialregression models. Climate, socioeconomic and environmental variables were also used as co-variablesto build models and use them to estimate a risk map for the whole state of Minas Gerais. The results showthat the models constructed from the spatial regression produced a better fit, providing smaller root meansquare error (RMSE) values. When no spatial information was used, the RMSE for the whole state of MinasGerais reached 9.5%; with spatial regression, the RMSE reaches 8.8% (when the new variables are added tothe model) and 8.5% (with the use of spatial regression). Variables representing vegetation, temperature,precipitation, topography, sanitation and human development indexes were important in explaining thespread of disease and identified certain conditions that are favorable for disease development. The use ofspatial regression for the network of roads and rivers produced meaningful results for health managementprocedures and directing activities, enabling better detection of disease risk areas
Keywords
Spatial relationsGeneralized proximity matrices
Spatial analysis
Regression analysis
Schistosomiasis mansonia
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