Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/11939
Title: Seasonal and nonseasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: Fitting mathematical models to trap data
Authors: Lana, Raquel M.
Carneiro, Tiago G. S.
Honório, Nildimar A.
Codeço, Cláudia T.
Affilliation: Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto. Departamento de Ciências de Computação. Laboratório para Modelagem e Simulação de Sistemas Terrestres. Ouro Preto, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Universidade Federal de Ouro Preto. Departamento de Ciências de Computação. Laboratório para Modelagem e Simulação de Sistemas Terrestres. Ouro Preto, MG, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Transmissores de Hematozoários. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Abstract: Mathematical models suggest that seasonal transmission and temporary cross-immunity betweenserotypes can determine the characteristic multi-year dynamics of dengue fever. Seasonal transmis-sion is attributed to the effect of climate on mosquito abundance and within host virus dynamics. In thisstudy, we validate a set of temperature and density dependent entomological models that are built-incomponents of most dengue models by fitting them to time series of ovitrap data from three distinctneighborhoods in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The results indicate that neighborhoods differ in the strength ofthe seasonal component and that commonly used models tend to assume more seasonal structure thanfound in data. Future dengue models should investigate the impact of heterogeneous levels of seasonalityon dengue dynamics as it may affect virus maintenance from year to year, as well as the risk of disease outbreaks.
Keywords: Aedes aegypti
Rio de Janeiro
Seasonal transmission
Dengue fever
DeCS: Dengue
Aedes
Issue Date: 2014
Publisher: Elsevier
Citation: LANA, Raquel M. et al. Seasonal and nonseasonal dynamics of Aedes aegypti in Rio de Janeiro,Brazil: fitting mathematical models to trap data. Acta Tropica, v. 129, p. 25-32, Jan. 2014.
DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2013.07.025
ISSN: 0001-706X
Copyright: restricted access
Appears in Collections:Presidência Fiocruz - PROCC - Artigos de Periódicos
IOC - Artigos de Periódicos

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