| Author | Carvalho, Bruno M. | |
| Author | Rangel, Elizabeth F. | |
| Author | Ready, Paul D. | |
| Author | Vale, Mariana M. | |
| Access date | 2016-03-22T11:54:09Z | |
| Available date | 2016-03-22T11:54:09Z | |
| Document date | 2015 | |
| Citation | CARVALHO, Bruno M. et al. Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change. Plos One, v.10, n.11, e0143282, 21p, Nov. 2015. | pt_BR |
| ISSN | 1932-6203 | |
| URI | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/13225 | |
| Language | eng | pt_BR |
| Publisher | Public Library of Science | pt_BR |
| Rights | open access | |
| Subject in Portuguese | Leishmania | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | América do Sul | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Díptera | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Mudança climática | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Vetores | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Nicho ecológico | pt_BR |
| Title | Ecological Niche Modelling Predicts Southward Expansion of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata (Diptera: Psychodidae: Phlebotominae), Vector of Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis in South America, under Climate Change | pt_BR |
| Type | Article | |
| DOI | 10.1371/ journal.pone.0143282 | |
| Abstract | Vector borne diseases are susceptible to climate change because distributions and densities
of many vectors are climate driven. The Amazon region is endemic for cutaneous leishmaniasis
and is predicted to be severely impacted by climate change. Recent records
suggest that the distributions of Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata and the parasite it
transmits, Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis, are expanding southward, possibly due
to climate change, and sometimes associated with new human infection cases. We define
the vector’s climatic niche and explore future projections under climate change scenarios.
Vector occurrence records were compiled from the literature, museum collections and Brazilian
Health Departments. Six bioclimatic variables were used as predictors in six ecological
niche model algorithms (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, MaxEnt, GARP, logistic regression and
Random Forest). Projections for 2050 used 17 general circulation models in two greenhouse
gas representative concentration pathways: “stabilization” and “high increase”.
Ensemble models and consensus maps were produced by overlapping binary predictions.
Final model outputs showed good performance and significance. The use of species
absence data substantially improved model performance. Currently, L. flaviscutellata is
widely distributed in the Amazon region, with records in the Atlantic Forest and savannah
regions of Central Brazil. Future projections indicate expansion of the climatically suitable
area for the vector in both scenarios, towards higher latitudes and elevations. L. flaviscutellata
is likely to find increasingly suitable conditions for its expansion into areas where
human population size and density are much larger than they are in its current locations. If environmental conditions change as predicted, the range of the vector is likely to expand to
southeastern and central-southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and further into the Amazonian
areas of Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Colombia and Venezuela. These areas will only become
endemic for L. amazonensis, however, if they have competent reservoir hosts and transmission
dynamics matching those in the Amazon region. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Entomológica em Díptera e Hemíptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom / Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Entomológica em Díptera e Hemíptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases. Department of Disease Control. London, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. | pt_BR |
| Subject | Leishmania amazonensis | pt_BR |
| Subject | South America | pt_BR |
| Subject | Climate Change | pt_BR |
| Subject | Lutzomyia (Nyssomyia) flaviscutellata | pt_BR |
| Subject | Ecological Niche | pt_BR |
| xmlui.metadata.dc.subject.ods | 13 Ação contra a mudança global do clima | |
