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https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/20155
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Embargo date
2030-01-01
Sustainable Development Goals
03 Saúde e Bem-EstarCollections
- IOC - Artigos de Periódicos [12967]
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EVALUATION OF THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON DISEASE VECTORS THROUGH ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING
Psychodidae
Phlebotomus
Ceratopogonidae
Triatoma
Ixodes
Doenças transmitidas por vetores
Distribuição espacial
Modelagem de conjunto
Aedes
spatial distribution
ensemble modelling
Aedes
Anopheles
Lutzomyia
Phlebotomus
Culicoides
Triatoma
Ixodes
Affilliation
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Epidemiológica em Díptera e Hemiptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Pós-Graduação em Ecologia e Evolução. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Epidemiológica em Díptera e Hemiptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ. Brasil.
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório Interdisciplinar de Vigilância Epidemiológica em Díptera e Hemiptera. Rio de Janeiro, RJ. Brasil.
Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Instituto de Biologia. Laboratório de Vertebrados. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases are exceptionally sensitive to climate change. Predicting vector occurrence in specific regions is a challenge that disease control programs must meet in order to plan and execute control interventions and climate change adaptation measures. Recently, an increasing number of scientific articles have applied ecological niche modelling (ENM) to study medically important insects and ticks. With a myriad of available methods, it is challenging to interpret their results. Here we review the future projections of disease vectors produced by ENM, and assess their trends and limitations. Tropical regions are currently occupied by many vector species; but future projections indicate poleward expansions of suitable climates for their occurrence and, therefore, entomological surveillance must be continuously done in areas projected to become suitable. The most commonly applied methods were the maximum entropy algorithm, generalized linear models, the genetic algorithm for rule set prediction, and discriminant analysis. Lack of consideration of the full-known current distribution of the target species on models with future projections has led to questionable predictions. We conclude that there is no ideal 'gold standard' method to model vector distributions; researchers are encouraged to test different methods for the same data. Such practice is becoming common in the field of ENM, but still lags behind in studies of disease vectors.
Keywords in Portuguese
AnophelesPsychodidae
Phlebotomus
Ceratopogonidae
Triatoma
Ixodes
Doenças transmitidas por vetores
Distribuição espacial
Modelagem de conjunto
Aedes
Keywords
vector-borne diseasesspatial distribution
ensemble modelling
Aedes
Anopheles
Lutzomyia
Phlebotomus
Culicoides
Triatoma
Ixodes
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