Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/23207
Title: Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae)
Authors: Peterson, A. Townsend
Campbell, Lindsay P.
Moo-Llanes, David A.
Travi, Bruno
González, Camila
Ferro, María Cristina
Ferreira, Gabriel Eduardo Melim
Brandão Filho, Sinval P.
Cupolillo, Elisa
Ramsey, Janine
Leffer, Andreia Mauruto Chernaki
Pech-May, Angélica
Shaw, Jeffrey J.
Affilliation: University of Kansas. Biodiversity Institute. Lawrence, KS, USA.
University of Kansas. Biodiversity Institute. Lawrence, KS, USA.
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Tapachula, Chiapas., Mexico.
University of Texas Medical Branch. Department of Internal Medicine—Infectious Diseases. Galveston, TX, USA.
Universidad de los Andes. Facultad de Ciencias. Centro de Investigaciones en Microbiología y Parasitología Tropical. Bogotá, Colombia.
Instituto Nacional de Salud. Subdirección Red Nacional de Laboratorios. Laboratorio de Entomologia. Bogotá,Colombia.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz Rondônia. Laboratório de Epidemiologia Genética. Porto Velho, RO, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz Pernambuco. Laboratório de Imunologia. Recife, PE, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Pesquisas em Leishmanioses. Rio de Janeiro, RJ. Brasil.
Instituto Nacional de Salud Pública. Tapachula, Chiapas., Mexico.
Universidade de São Paulo. Departa.mento de Parasitologia. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Instituto Nacional de Medicina Tropical, Neuquén y Jujuy. Puerto Iguazú, Misiones, Argentina.
Universidade de São Paulo. Departa.mento de Parasitologia. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Abstract: This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts.
Keywords: Leishmaniasis
Sand fly
Geographic distribution
Climate change
keywords: Leishmaniose
Psychodidae
Distribuição geográfica
Mudança climática
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: Elsevier
Citation: PETERSON, A. Townsend; et aL. Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae). International Journal for Parasitology v.47, p..667–674, June 2017.
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijpara.2017.04.007
ISSN: 0020-7519
Copyright: restricted access
Appears in Collections:PE - IAM - Artigos de Periódicos
RO - Artigos de Periódicos
IOC - Artigos de Periódicos

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