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Sustainable Development Goals
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C-REACTIVE PROTEIN AND B-TYPE NATRIURETIC PEPTIDE YIELD EITHER A NON-SIGNIFICANT OR A MODEST INCREMENTAL VALUE TO TRADITIONAL RISK FACTORS IN PREDICTING LONG-TERM OVERALL MORTALITY IN OLDER ADULTS.
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Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Interna. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil/Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Pós Graduação. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Department of Cardiology. Erasmus Medical Center. Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Interna. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil/Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Pós Graduação. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Diagnostica. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Interna. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Interna. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil/Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Pós Graduação. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil/Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Hospital das Clínicas. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Department of Cardiology. Erasmus Medical Center. Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Interna. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil/Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Pós Graduação. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Diagnostica. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Interna. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil/Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas René Rachou. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Medicina Interna. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil/Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Pós Graduação. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil/Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Hospital das Clínicas. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil
Abstract
BACKGROUND: New biomarkers may aid in preventive and end-of-life decisions in older adults if they enhance the prognostic ability of traditional risk factors. We investigated whether C-reactive protein (CRP) and/or B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) improve the ability to predict overall mortality among the elderly of the Bambuí, Brazil Study of Aging when added to traditional risk factors.
METHODS: From 1997 to 2007, 1,470 community-dwelling individuals (≥60 years) were followed-up. Death was ascertained by continuous verification of death certificates. We calculated hazard ratios per 1 standard deviation change (HR) of death for traditional risk factors only (old model), and traditional risk factors plus CRP and/or BNP (new models) and assessed calibration of the models. Subsequently, we compared c-statistic of each of the new models to the old one, and calculated integrated discriminative improvement (IDI) and net reclassification improvement (NRI).
RESULTS: 544 (37.0%) participants died in a mean follow-up time of 9.0 years. CRP (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.17-1.40), BNP (HR 1.31 95% CI 1.19-1.45), and CRP plus BNP (HR 1.26, 95% CI 1.15-1.38, and HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.16-1.42, respectively) were independent determinants of mortality. All models were well-calibrated. Discrimination was similar among the old (c-statistic 0.78 [0.78-0.81]) and new models (p=0.43 for CRP; p=0.57 for BNP; and p=0.31 for CRP plus BNP). Compared to the old model, CRP, BNP, and CRP plus BNP models led to an IDI of 0.009 (p<0.001), -0.005 (p<0.001) and -0.003 (p=0.84), and a NRI of 0.04 (p=0.24), 0.07 (p=0.08) and 0.06 (p=0.10), respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Despite being independent predictors of long-term risk of death, compared to traditional risk factors CRP and/or BNP led to either a modest or non-significant improvement in the ability of predicting all-cause mortality in older adults.
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