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Title: Seasonal dynamics of influenza in Brazil: the latitude effect
Authors: Almeida, Alexandra
Codeço, Cláudia
Luz, Paula
Affilliation: Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Pública. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Abstract: Background: Influenza is a global transmissible disease. Its dynamics is far better understood in temperate climates than in the tropics. We aim to close this knowledge gap between tropical and temperate regions by showing how the influenza seasonality evolves in Brazil, a tropical country that encompasses a wide range of latitudes and six climatic sub-types. Methods: We analyzed a state-level, weekly Syndrome of Acute Respiratory Disease (SARI) incidence data ranging from 2010 to 2016. We combined two techniques hierarchically: first the wavelet decomposition technique to detect annual periodicity and then circular statistics to describe seasonal measures of the periodic states. Results: We found significant annual periodicity in 44% of the states. For these, we calculated several seasonal measures such as the center of gravity or mean timing of activity. The relationship between the seasonal signatures and latitude was clear and statistically significant. States with seasonal signature are clustered along the coast. Most Amazonian and Central West states exhibit no seasonal behavior. Among the seasonal states, influenza starts in Northeast region, spreading southbound. Conclusions: Our study advances the comprehension of influenza seasonality in tropical areas and could be used to design more effective prevention and control strategies.
Keywords: Influenza
Wavelet decomposition
Issue Date: 2018
Publisher: BMC
Citation: ALMEIDA, Alexandra; CODEÇO, Cláudia; LUZ, Paula. Seasonal dynamics of influenza in Brazil: the latitude effect. BMC Infectious Diseases, p. 1-9, 2018.
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-018-3484-z
ISSN: 1471-2334
Copyright: open access
Appears in Collections:Presidência Fiocruz – Artigos de Periódicos
ENSP - Artigos de Periódicos
INI - Artigos de Periódicos

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