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ESTIMATING THE SIZE OF AEDES AEGYPTI POPULATIONS FROM DENGUE INCIDENCE DATA: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE RISK OF YELLOW FEVER OUTBREAKS
Massad, Eduardo et al. | Date Issued: 2017
Author
Massad, Eduardo
Amaku, Marcos
Coutinho, Francisco Antonio Bezerra
Struchiner, Claudio José
Lopez, Luis Fernandez
Wilder-Smith, Annelies
Burattini, Marcelo Nascimento
Affilliation
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. São Paulo, SP, Brasil / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. UK / The University of Derby. College of Life and Natural Sciences, UK
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Presidência. Programa de Computação Científica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada / Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, Germany / Department Public Health and Clinical Medicine, Epidemiology and Global Health, Umeå University, SE-901 85 Umeå, Sweden / Lee Kong Chian School of Medicine, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore.
Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. São Paulo, SP, Brasil / Universidade Federal de São Paulo. Escola Paulista de Medicina. Hospital São Paulo. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Abstract
In this paper we present a model to estimate the density of aedes mosquitoes in a community affected by dengue. The method consists in fitting a continuous function to the incidence of dengue infections, from which the density of infected mosquitoes is derived straightforwardly. Further derivations allow the calculation of the latent and susceptible mosquitoes' densities, the sum of the three equals the total mosquitoes' density. The method is illustrated with the case of the risk of urban yellow fever resurgence in dengue infested areas but the same procedures apply for other aedes-transmitted infections like Zika and chikungunya viruses.
Keywords
Aedes aegypti
Mosquitoes' densities
Dengue
Zika virus
Yellow fever
 
DeCS
Aedes
Dípteros
Culicidae
Dengue
Zika virus
Febre Amarela
 
Publisher
KeAi
Citation
MASSAD, Eduardo et al. Estimating the size of Aedes aegypti populations from dengue incidence data: Implications for the risk of yellow fever outbreaks. Infectious Disease Modelling, v. 2, p. 441-454, 2017.
DOI
10.1016/j.idm.2017.12.001
ISSN
2468-0427