| Author | Pinotti, Francesco | |
| Author | Wikramaratna, Paul S. | |
| Author | Obolski, Uri | |
| Author | Paton, Robert S. | |
| Author | Daminelli, Daniel S. C. | |
| Author | Alcantara, Luiz C. J. | |
| Author | Giovaneti, Marta | |
| Author | Gupta, Sunetra | |
| Author | Lourenço, José | |
| Access date | 2021-01-26T14:34:59Z | |
| Available date | 2021-01-26T14:34:59Z | |
| Document date | 2021 | |
| Citation | PINOTTI, Francesco et al. Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19. BMC Medicine, v. 19, n. 19, p. 1-12, 2021. | pt_BR |
| ISSN | 1471-7015 | pt_BR |
| URI | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/45823 | |
| Language | eng | pt_BR |
| Publisher | BMC | pt_BR |
| Rights | open access | |
| Subject in Portuguese | COVID-19 | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | SARS-CoV-2 | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Coronavírus endêmicas | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Reatividade cruzada | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Imunopatologia | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Modelo matemático | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Dinâmica de doenças infecciosas | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Modelo individual | pt_BR |
| Title | Potential impact of individual exposure histories to endemic human coronaviruses on age-dependent severity of COVID-19 | pt_BR |
| Type | Article | |
| DOI | 10.1186/s12916-020-01887-1 | |
| Abstract | Background: Cross-reactivity to SARS-CoV-2 from exposure to endemic human coronaviruses (eHCoV) is gaining increasing attention as a possible driver of both protection against infection and COVID-19 severity. Here we explore the potential role of cross-reactivity induced by eHCoVs on age-specific COVID-19 severity in a mathematical model of eHCoV and SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods: We use an individual-based model, calibrated to prior knowledge of eHCoV dynamics, to fully track individual histories of exposure to eHCoVs. We also model the emergent dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 and the risk of hospitalisation upon infection. Results: We hypothesise that primary exposure with any eHCoV confers temporary cross-protection against severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, while life-long re-exposure to the same eHCoV diminishes cross-protection, and increases the potential for disease severity. We show numerically that our proposed mechanism can explain age patterns of COVID-19 hospitalisation in EU/EEA countries and the UK. We further show that some of the observed variation in health care capacity and testing efforts is compatible with country-specific differences in hospitalisation rates under this model. Conclusions: This study provides a “proof of possibility” for certain biological and epidemiological mechanisms that could potentially drive COVID-19-related variation across age groups. Our findings call for further research on the role of cross-reactivity to eHCoVs and highlight data interpretation challenges arising from health care capacity and SARS-CoV-2 testing. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Independent Consultant. London, England. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Tel Aviv University. School of Public Health. Tel Aviv, Israel / Tel Aviv University. Porter School of the Environment and Earth Sciences. Tel Aviv, Israel. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Medicina. Departamento de Pediatria. São Paulo, SP, Brasil. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, TJ, Brasil. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais. Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, TJ, Brasil. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, UK. | pt_BR |
| Subject | COVID-19 | pt_BR |
| Subject | SARS-CoV-2 | pt_BR |
| Subject | Endemic coronaviruses | pt_BR |
| Subject | Cross-reactivity | pt_BR |
| Subject | Immunopathology | pt_BR |
| Subject | Mathematical model | pt_BR |
| Subject | Infectious disease dynamics | pt_BR |
| Subject | Individual-based model | pt_BR |
| xmlui.metadata.dc.subject.ods | 03 Saúde e Bem-Estar | |
