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Sustainable Development Goals
03 Saúde e Bem-EstarCollections
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MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF COVID-19 IN 14.8 MILLION INDIVIDUALS IN BAHIA, BRAZIL
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COVID-19 is affecting healthcare resources worldwide, with lower and middle-income countries being particularly disadvantaged to mitigate the challenges imposed by the disease, including the availability of a sufficient number of infirmary/ICU hospital beds, ventilators, and medical supplies. Here, we use mathematical modelling to study the dynamics of COVID19 in Bahia, a state in northeastern Brazil, considering the influences of asymptomatic/nondetected cases, hospitalizations, and mortality. The impacts of policies on the transmission rate were also examined. Our results underscore the difficulties in maintaining a fully operational health infrastructure amidst the pandemic. Lowering the transmission rate is paramount to this objective, but current local efforts, leading to a 36% decrease, remain insufficient to prevent systemic collapse at peak demand, which could be accomplished using periodic interventions. Non-detected cases contribute to a ∽55% increase in R0. Finally, we discuss our results in light of epidemiological data that became available after the initial analyses.
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