Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/50981
Title: On the brink of disruption: Applying Resilience Engineering to anticipate system performance under crisis
Authors: Arcuri, Rodrigo
Bellas, Hugo Cesar
Ferreira, Denise de Souza
Bulhões, Bárbara
Vidal, Mario Cesar Rodríguez
Carvalho, Paulo Victor Rodrigues de
Jatobá, Alessandro
Hollnagel, Erik
Affilliation: Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Presidency. Center for Strategic Studies. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Production Engineering Program. COPPE. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Presidency. Center for Strategic Studies. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Production Engineering Program. COPPE. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Presidency. Center for Strategic Studies. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Production Engineering Program. COPPE. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Nuclear Engineering Institute. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Presidency. Center for Strategic Studies. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Jöoköping University. Jöoköping, Sweden.
Abstract: As COVID-19 spread across Brazil, it quickly reached remote regions including Amazon’s ultra-peripheral locations where patient transportation through rivers is added to the list of obstacles to overcome. This article analyses the pandemic’s effects in the access of riverine communities to the prehospital emergency healthcare system in the Brazilian Upper Amazon River region. To do so, we present two studies that by using a Resilience Engineering approach aimed to predict the functioning of the Brazilian Mobile Emergency Medical Service (SAMU) for riverside and coastal areas during the COVID-19 pandemic, based on the normal system functioning. Study I, carried out before the pandemic, applied ethnographic methods for data collection and the Functional Resonance Analysis Method - FRAM for data analysis in order to develop a model of the mobile emergency care in the region during typical conditions of operation. Study II then estimated how changes in variability dynamics would alter system functioning during the pandemic, arriving at three trends that could lead the service to collapse. Finally, the accuracy of predictions is discussed after the pandemic first peaked in the region. Findings reveal that relatively small changes in variability dynamics can deliver strong implications to operating care and safety of expeditions aboard water ambulances. Also, important elements that add to the resilient capabilities of the system are extra-organizational, and thus during the pandemic safety became jeopardized as informal support networks grew fragile. Using FRAM for modelling regular operation enabled prospective scenario analysis that accurately predicted disruptions in providing emergency care to riverine population.
Keywords: FRAM
Mobile emergency care
Risk assessment
Resilience engineering
Safety management
COVID-19
Issue Date: 2022
Publisher: Elsevier
Citation: ARCURI, Rodrigo et al. On the brink of disruption: Applying Resilience Engineering to anticipate system performance under crisis. Applied Ergonomics, v. 99, p. 1-13, 2022.
Description: Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
DOI: 10.1016/j.apergo.2021.103632
ISSN: 0003-6870
Copyright: open access
Appears in Collections:Presidência Fiocruz - CEE - Artigos de Periódicos
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