Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/55099
Type
ArticleCopyright
Restricted access
Sustainable Development Goals
04 Educação de qualidadeCollections
- INI - Artigos de Periódicos [3645]
Metadata
Show full item record
HOSPITAL LENGTH OF STAY AND 30-DAY MORTALITY PREDICTION IN STROKE: A MACHINE LEARNING ANALYSIS OF 17,000 ICU ADMISSIONS IN BRAZIL
Length of stay
Machine learning
Mortality
Outcomes
Prediction model
Stroke
Affilliation
D'Or Institute for Research and Education. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Hospital Copa Star. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Paulo Niemeyer State Brain Institute. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Department of Industrial Engineering. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
D'Or Institute for Research and Education. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
D'Or Institute for Research and Education. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Postgraduate Program of Internal Medicine. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / D'Or Institute for Research and Education. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro. Department of Industrial Engineering. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
D'Or Institute for Research and Education. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
D'Or Institute for Research and Education. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Postgraduate Program of Internal Medicine. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil / D'Or Institute for Research and Education. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Abstract
Background: Hospital length of stay and mortality are associated with resource use and clinical severity, respectively, in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke. We proposed a structured data-driven methodology to develop length of stay and 30-day mortality prediction models in a large multicenter Brazilian ICU cohort.
Methods: We analyzed data from 130 ICUs from 43 Brazilian hospitals. All consecutive adult patients admitted with stroke (ischemic or nontraumatic hemorrhagic) to the ICU from January 2011 to December 2020 were included. Demographic data, comorbidities, acute disease characteristics, organ support, and laboratory data were retrospectively analyzed by a data-driven methodology, which included seven different types of machine learning models applied to training and test sets of data. The best performing models, based on discrimination and calibration measures, are reported as the main results. Outcomes were hospital length of stay and 30-day in-hospital mortality.
Results: Of 17,115 ICU admissions for stroke, 16,592 adult patients (13,258 ischemic and 3334 hemorrhagic) were analyzed; 4298 (26%) patients had a prolonged hospital length of stay (> 14 days), and 30-day mortality was 8% (n = 1392). Prolonged hospital length of stay was best predicted by the random forests model (Brier score = 0.17, area under the curve = 0.73, positive predictive value = 0.61, negative predictive value = 0.78). Mortality prediction also yielded the best discrimination and calibration through random forests (Brier score = 0.05, area under the curve = 0.90, positive predictive value = 0.66, negative predictive value = 0.94). Among the 20 strongest contributor variables in both models were (1) premorbid conditions (e.g., functional impairment), (2) multiple organ dysfunction parameters (e.g., hypotension, mechanical ventilation), and (3) acute neurological aspects of stroke (e.g., Glasgow coma scale score on admission, stroke type).
Conclusions: Hospital length of stay and 30-day mortality of patients admitted to the ICU with stroke were accurately predicted through machine learning methods, even in the absence of stroke-specific data, such as the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score or neuroimaging findings. The proposed methods using general intensive care databases may be used for resource use allocation planning and performance assessment of ICUs treating stroke. More detailed acute neurological and management data, as well as long-term functional outcomes, may improve the accuracy and applicability of future machine-learning-based prediction algorithms.
Keywords
Intensive care unitLength of stay
Machine learning
Mortality
Outcomes
Prediction model
Stroke
Share