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WEST NILE VIRUS TRANSMISSION POTENTIAL IN PORTUGAL
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Abstract
It is unclear whether West Nile virus (WNV) circulates endemically in Portugal. Despite the
country’s adequate climate for transmission, Portugal has only reported four human WNV
infections so far. We performed a review of WNV-related data (1966–2020), explored
mosquito (2016–2019) and land type distributions (1992–2019), and used climate data
(1981–2019) to estimate WNV transmission suitability in Portugal. Serological and molecular
evidence of WNV circulation from animals and vectors was largely restricted to the south.
Land type and climate-driven transmission suitability distributions, but not the distribution of
WNV-capable vectors, were compatible with the North-South divide present in serological
and molecular evidence of WNV circulation. Our study offers a comprehensive, datainformed
perspective and review on the past epidemiology, surveillance and climate-driven
transmission suitability of WNV in Portugal, highlighting the south as a subregion of
importance. Given the recent WNV outbreaks across Europe, our results support a timely
change towards local, active surveillance.
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