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DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A CLINICAL RULE FOR THE DIAGNOSIS OF CHIKUNGUNYA FEVER IN A DENGUE-ENDEMIC AREA
Chikungunya
Chikungunya virus
Zika virus
Epidemic
Neglected arbovirus infection
Author
Affilliation
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Escola Nacional de Saúde Publica Sergio Arouca. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro. Hospital Universitário Clementino Fraga Filho. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Epidemiologia Clinica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Universidade Estácio de Sá. Faculdade de Medicina. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Epidemiologia Clinica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Epidemiologia Clinica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Epidemiologia Clinica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Universidade Estácio de Sá. Faculdade de Medicina. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Epidemiologia Clinica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas. Laboratório de Epidemiologia Clinica. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
Abstract
Rio de Janeiro is a dengue-endemic city that experienced Zika and chikungunya epidemics between 2015 and 2019. Differential diagnosis is crucial for indicating adequate treatment and assessing prognosis and risk of death. This study aims to derive and validate a clinical rule for diagnosing chikungunya based on 3,214 suspected cases consecutively treated at primary and secondary health units of the sentinel surveillance system (up to 7 days from onset of symptoms) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Of the total sample, 624 were chikungunya, 88 Zika, 51 dengue, and 2,451 were negative for all these arboviruses according to real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR). The derived rule included fever (1 point), exanthema (1 point), myalgia (2 points), arthralgia or arthritis (2 points), and joint edema (2 points), providing an AUC (area under the receiver operator curve) = 0.695 (95% CI: 0.662-0.725). Scores of 4 points or more (validation sample) showed 74.3% sensitivity (69.0% - 79.2%) and 51.5% specificity (48.8% - 54.3%). Adding more symptoms improved the specificity at the expense of a lower sensitivity compared to definitions proposed by government agencies based on fever alone (European Center for Disease Control) or in combination with arthralgia (World Health Organization) or arthritis (Pan American Health Organization, Brazilian Ministry of Health). The proposed clinical rule offers a rapid, low-cost, easy-to-apply strategy to differentiate chikungunya fever from other arbovirus infections during epidemics.
Keywords
Chikungunya feverChikungunya
Chikungunya virus
Zika virus
Epidemic
Neglected arbovirus infection
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