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3100-12-31
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A RETROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF CLIMATE-BASED DENGUE VIRUS TRANSMISSION SUITABILITY AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES OVER THE LAST FOUR DECADES
Affilliation
Department of Epidemiology & Population Health. Stanford University School of Medicine. Stanford, CA, USA
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Rene Rachou. Belo Horizonte, MG,Brasil/Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Development and One Health. Universita Campus Bio-Medico di Roma. Italy/Climate Amplified Diseases and Epidemics. Brazil, Americas
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. School of Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. Tel Aviv University. Tel Aviv, Israel/Department of Environmental Sciences, Porter School of Environmental and Earth Sciences. Faculty of Exact Sciences. Tel Aviv University. Tel Aviv, Israel
Universidade Católica Portuguesa. Faculty of Medicine. Católica Biomedical Research Center. Lisbon, Portugal/Climate Amplified Diseases and Epidemics . Portugal, Europe
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Rene Rachou. Belo Horizonte, MG,Brasil/Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Development and One Health. Universita Campus Bio-Medico di Roma. Italy/Climate Amplified Diseases and Epidemics. Brazil, Americas
Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. School of Public Health. Faculty of Medicine. Tel Aviv University. Tel Aviv, Israel/Department of Environmental Sciences, Porter School of Environmental and Earth Sciences. Faculty of Exact Sciences. Tel Aviv University. Tel Aviv, Israel
Universidade Católica Portuguesa. Faculty of Medicine. Católica Biomedical Research Center. Lisbon, Portugal/Climate Amplified Diseases and Epidemics . Portugal, Europe
Abstract
The geographical range and intensity of dengue virus transmission have significantly increased in recent years due to changes in climate, urbanization and human movement. Using estimates of dengue transmission suitability based on historical climate data, we analyze the effects of climate and demographic changes on the global population living in high-risk areas over the last four decades. We find that climate-related stress has been greatest in the Global South, especially in Africa and Southeast Asia. Although the geographic limits of dengue transmission suitability remained relatively stable in recent years, the global population at risk within those areas has grown by approximately 1.7 billion, driven by population growth in areas with historically dengue-favorable climate conditions. While many studies focus on future changes, we provide oft-overlooked evidence towards understanding how past climate and demographic change may have shaped the current global epidemiology of dengue
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