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Sustainable Development Goals
13 Ação contra a mudança global do climaCollections
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CLIMATE CHANGE, THERMAL ANOMALIES, AND THE RECENT PROGRESSION OF DENGUE IN BRAZIL
Affilliation
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Observatório de Clima e Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Observatório de Clima e Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Barcelona, Spain.
Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Barcelona, Spain / Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies. Barcelona, Spain / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, UK.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto de Comunicação e Informação Científica e Tecnológica em Saúde. Observatório de Clima e Saúde. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil.
Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Barcelona, Spain.
Barcelona Supercomputing Center. Barcelona, Spain / Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies. Barcelona, Spain / London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health and Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London, UK.
Abstract
Dengue is rapidly expanding its transmission area across Brazil and much of South America. In this study, data-mining techniques were used to identify climatic and demographic indicators that could explain the recent (2014-2020) and simultaneous trends of expansion and exacerbation of the incidence in some regions of Brazil. The previous circulation of the virus (dengue incidence rates between 2007 and 2013), urbanization, and the occurrence of temperature anomalies for a prolonged period were the main factors that led to increased incidence of dengue in the central region of Brazil. Regions with high altitudes, which previously acted as a barrier for dengue transmission, became areas of high incidence rates. The algorithm that was developed during this study can be utilized to assess future climate scenarios and plan preventive actions.
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