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SEASONAL TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATION AND SNAIL ADAPTIVE BEHAVIORS YIELD INSIGHTS INTO THE DYNAMICS AND DISTRIBUTION OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS IN AFRICA.
Aslan, Ibrahim Halil et al. | Date Issued: 2025
Author
Aslan, Ibrahim Halil
Pourtois, Julie D
Frans, Veronica F
Forstchen, Meghan
Goodman, Maurice C
Chamberlin, Andrew J
Mitchell, Kaitlyn R
Mari, Lorenzo
Lo, Nathan C
Lwiza, Kamazima M
Diakite, Nana R
Ouattara, Mamadou
Goran, Eliezer K N’
Wood, Chelsea L
Tuan, Roseli
Allan, Fiona
Caldeira, Roberta Lima
Monteiro, Antônio MV
Rohr, Jason
Mordecai, Erin A
Leo, Giulio A De
Affilliation
Department of Biology. Stanford University. Stanford, CA, USA. / Hopkins Marine Station. Stanford University. Pacific Grove, CA, USA.
Department of Biology. University of Maryland. College Park, MD, USA.
Hopkins Marine Station. Stanford University. Pacific Grove, CA, USA.
Department of Biology. University of Notre Dame. Notre Dame, IN, USA.
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. University of Washington. Seattle, WA, USA.
Hopkins Marine Station. Stanford University. Pacific Grove, CA, USA.
Department of Biology. Stanford University. Stanford, CA, USA. / Hopkins Marine Station. Stanford University. Pacific Grove, CA, USA.
Department of Electronics. Information and Bioengineering. Politecnico di Milano. Milano, Italy.
Division of Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine. Department of Medicine. Stanford University. Stanford, CA, USA.
School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences. Stony Brook University. New York, NY, USA.
Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny. Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny. Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
Université Félix Houphouët-Boigny. Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences. University of Washington. Seattle, WA, USA.
Instituto Pasteur. Secretaria Pública de Saúde de São Paulo. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Department of Life Sciences. Natural History Museum. London, UK.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto René Rachou. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brasil.
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais. São José dos Campos. SP, Brasil.
Department of Biology. University of Notre Dame. Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Department of Biology. Stanford University. Stanford, CA, USA. / Woods Institute for the Environment. Stanford University. Stanford, CA, USA.
Hopkins Marine Station. Stanford University. Pacific Grove, CA, USA. / Woods Institute for the Environment. Stanford University. Stanford, CA, USA.
Abstract
The complex relationship between temperature and schistosomiasis, an environmentally mediated neglected tropical disease affecting 250 million people globally, with hyperendemicity mostly in Africa, is poorly characterized. Here, we explored how seasonal temperature fluctuation affects the persistence, dynamics, and geographic distribution of schistosomiasis in Africa. We used a temperature-sensitive, mechanistic model of schistosomiasis dynamics that accounts for the adaptive behaviors of intermediate snail hosts and derived the disease’s thermal response curve for different patterns of seasonal temperature fluctuations. Changing the amplitude of seasonal temperature fluctuations can influence both the thermal optimum and critical thermal thresholds which imply accurately drawing the thermal response curves requires accounting for seasonality in addition to mean annual temperature. Moreover, our simulations can reproduce the documented persistence of schistosomiasis at locations with strong seasonal temperature fluctuations and mean annual temperatures near or above the critical thermal maxima for snail hosts only when snail adaptive behavior (e.g., aestivation, movement into cooler depths or shade) is included in the model. These results suggest that future climate change impacting the amplitude and timing of these fluctuations will likely alter the future geographic distribution of schistosomiasis in African regions. Our work demonstrates that a comprehensive understanding of schistosomiasis and, potentially, other environmentally mediated diseases in Africa, necessitates the inclusion of seasonal temperature fluctuations and host behavioral adaptations in process-based mechanistic models.
Keywords in Portuguese
Esquistossomose
Doenças infecciosas
Ecologia
Mudanças climáticas
Infecção parasitária
 
Keywords
Schistosomiasis
Infectious Diseases
Ecology
Seasonal temperature fluctuation
Climate change
Parasitic infection
Ectotherms
 
Publisher
Research Square
Citation
ASLAN, Ibrahim Halil et al. Seasonal temperature fluctuation and snail adaptive behaviors yield insights into the dynamics and distribution of schistosomiasis in Africa. Research Square, p. rs-3, 2025.
DOI
10.21203/rs.3.rs-6264426/v1
ISSN
2693-5015