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LYING IN WAIT: THE RESURGENCE OF DENGUE VIRUS AFTER THE ZIKA EPIDEMIC IN BRAZIL
Brito, Anderson Fernandes et al. | Date Issued: 2021
Author
Brito, Anderson Fernandes
Machado, Lais Ceschini
Oidtman, Rachel J.
Siconelli, Márcio Junio Lima
Tran, Quan Minh
Fauver, Joseph R.
Carvalho, Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira
Dezordi, Filipe Zimmer
Pereira, Mylena Ribeiro
Castro-Jorge, Luiza Antunes de
Minto, Elaine Cristina Manini
Passos, Luzia Márcia Romanholi
Kalinich, Chaney C.
Petrone, Mary E.
Allen, Emma
España, Guido Camargo
Huang, Angkana T.
Cummings, Derek A. T.
Baele, Guy
Franca, Rafael Freitas Oliveira
Fonseca, Benedito Antônio Lopes da
Perkins, T. Alex
Wallau, Gabriel Luz
Grubaugh, Nathan D.
Affilliation
Yale University. Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, CT, USA.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute. Department of Entomology. Recife, PE, Brazil.
University of Notre Dame. Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health. Notre Dame, IN, USA.
University of São Paulo. Ribeirão Preto Medical School. Internal Medicine Department. Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.
University of Notre Dame. Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health. Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Yale University. Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, CT, USA.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute. Department of Entomology. Recife, PE, Brazil.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute. Department of Entomology. Recife, PE, Brazil.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute. Department of Virology and Experimental Therapy. Recife, PE, Brazil.
University of São Paulo. Ribeirão Preto Medical School. Internal Medicine Department. Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.
Municipal Health Secretary from Ribeirão Preto. Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.
Municipal Health Secretary from Ribeirão Preto. Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.
Yale University. Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, CT, USA.
Yale University. Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, CT, USA.
Yale University. Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, CT, USA.
University of Notre Dame. Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health. Notre Dame, IN, USA.
University of Florida. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute. Gainesville, FL, USA.
University of Florida. Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute. Gainesville, FL, USA.
KU Leuven Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation. Rega Institute, Laboratory of Evolutionary and Computational Virology. Leuven, Belgium.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute. Department of Virology and Experimental Therapy. Recife, PE, Brazil.
University of São Paulo. Ribeirão Preto Medical School. Internal Medicine Department. Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil.
University of Notre Dame. Department of Biological Sciences and Eck Institute for Global Health. Notre Dame, IN, USA.
Oswaldo Cruz Foundation. Aggeu Magalhaẽs Institute. Department of Entomology. Recife, PE, Brazil.
Yale University. Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, CT, USA / Yale University. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology. New Haven, CT, USA.
Abstract
After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017-2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017-2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018-2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5-10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks.
Keywords
Zika virus (ZIKV)
Force of infection (FOI)
Mosquito-borne transmission
Dengue virus serotype 1 and 2
Brazil
 
Publisher
Nature
Citation
BRITO, Anderson Fernandes et al. Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil. Nature Communications, v. 12, n. 1, p. 1-13, May 2021.
DOI
10.1038/s41467-021-22921-7
ISSN
2041-1723