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SPATIOTEMPORAL DISEASE SUITABILITY PREDICTION FOR OROPOUCHE VIRUS AND THE ROLE OF VECTORS ACROSS THE AMERICAS.
Poongavanan, Jenicca et al. | Date Issued: 2025
Author
Poongavanan, Jenicca
Dunaiski, Marcel
D'or, Graeme
Kraemer, Moritz U G
Giovanetti, Marta
Lim, Ahyoung
Brady, Oliver J
Baxter, Cheryl
Fonseca, Vagner
Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Junior
Oliveira, Tulio de
Tegally, Houriiyah
Affilliation
Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation. School for Data Science and Computational Thinking. Stellenbosch University. Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Computer Science Division. Department of Mathematical Sciences. Stellenbosch University. Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation. School for Data Science and Computational Thinking. Stellenbosch University. Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Pandemic Sciences Institute. University of Oxford. Oxford, UK. / Department of Biology. University of Oxford. Oxford, UK.
Department of Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Development and One Health. Università Campus Bio-Medico di Roma. Rome, Italy. / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brasil. / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto René Rachou. Belo Horizonte. MG, Brasil.
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. London, United Kingdom. / Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. London, United Kingdom.
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Dynamics. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. London, United Kingdom. / Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases. London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. London, United Kingdom.
Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation. School for Data Science and Computational Thinking. Stellenbosch University. Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation. School for Data Science and Computational Thinking. Stellenbosch University. Stellenbosch, South Africa./ Universidade do Estado da Bahia. Departamento de Ciências Exatas e da Terra. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto René Rachou. Belo Horizonte. MG, Brasil
Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation. School for Data Science and Computational Thinking. Stellenbosch University. Stellenbosch, South Africa./ KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform. Nelson R Mandela School of Medicine. University of KwaZulu-Natal. Durban South Africa.
Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation. School for Data Science and Computational Thinking. Stellenbosch University. Stellenbosch, South Africa.
Abstract
Oropouche virus (OROV) is an emerging arbovirus with increasing outbreaks in South America, yet its environmental drivers and potential range remain poorly understood. Using ecological niche modeling (ENM) with random forests, we assessed the environmental suitability of OROV and its primary vector, Culicoides paraensis, across Brazil and the Americas. We evaluated five pseudo-absence sampling techniques, considering pseudo-absence ratios, buffer radii, and density smoothing factors to determine the most effective modeling approach. Key environmental predictors included humidity, agricultural land-use, and forest cover, while temperature had minimal influence for both the virus and the vector. The resulting suitability model identifies high transmission risk areas in Central and South America, and reveals that environmental suitability patterns align with seasonal fluctuations in case numbers, with peaks in Amazonian states at the beginning of the year and an expansion into non-Amazonian regions later in the year. A bivariate suitability map highlighted strong spatial overlap between OROV and Culicoides paraensis, with potential co-suitability areas with Culex quinquefasciatus mosquito, a suspected secondary vector. These findings enhance understanding of OROV transmission dynamics, supporting risk assessment, surveillance, and vector control strategies.
Keywords in Portuguese
Arboviroses
Keywords
Arboviruses
Culicoides paraensis
Environmental niche models
Oropouche virus
Pseudo-absence sampling
 
Publisher
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
Citation
POONGAVANAN, Jenicca et al. Spatiotemporal disease suitability prediction for Oropouche virus and the role of vectors across the Americas. MedRxiv, 25, 2025.02.28.25323068, 2025.
DOI
10.1101/2025.02.28.25323068v1