| Author | Lewnard, Joseph A | |
| Author | Jirmanus, Lara | |
| Author | Nery Júnior, Nivison | |
| Author | Machado, Paulo Roberto | |
| Author | Glesby, Marshall J | |
| Author | Ko, Albert Icksang | |
| Author | Carvalho Filho, Edgar Marcelino | |
| Author | Schriefer, Albert | |
| Author | Weinberger, Daniel M | |
| Access date | 2014-11-12T18:11:24Z | |
| Available date | 2014-11-12T18:11:24Z | |
| Document date | 2014 | |
| Citation | LEWNARD, J. A. et al. Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 8, n. 10, p. e3283 , 2014 | pt_BR |
| ISSN | 1935-2727 | |
| URI | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/8808 | |
| Language | eng | pt_BR |
| Publisher | Public Library of Science | pt_BR |
| Rights | open access | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Leishmaniose cutânea | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Flebotomos | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Vetores | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Transmissão | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Epidemias | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Saúde pública | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Brasil | pt_BR |
| Title | Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil | pt_BR |
| Type | Article | pt_BR |
| DOI | 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283 | |
| Abstract | Introduction: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is
known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinelygathered
weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions.
Methodology/Principal Findings: We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural
region of Bahı´a, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models
accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up
to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation.
Significance: These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to
forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological
mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America | |
| Affilliation | Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil / Women’s Hospital. Center for Women’s Health and Gender Biology. Brigham and Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America | |
| Affilliation | Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, Brasil | |
| Affilliation | Weill Cornell Medical College. Division of Infectious Diseases. New York, NY, United States of America | |
| Affilliation | Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of América / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, Brasil | |
| Affilliation | Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil | |
| Affilliation | Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil | |
| Affilliation | Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America | |
| Recomended age | Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil | |
| xmlui.metadata.dc.subject.ods | 03 Saúde e Bem-Estar | |
