Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/8808
Title: Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil
Authors: Lewnard, Joseph A
Jirmanus, Lara
Nery Júnior, Nivison
Machado, Paulo Roberto
Glesby, Marshall J
Ko, Albert Icksang
Carvalho Filho, Edgar Marcelino
Schriefer, Albert
Weinberger, Daniel M
Affilliation: Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil / Women’s Hospital. Center for Women’s Health and Gender Biology. Brigham and Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Weill Cornell Medical College. Division of Infectious Diseases. New York, NY, United States of America
Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of América / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
Abstract: Introduction: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinelygathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings: We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahı´a, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation. Significance: These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets.
keywords: Leishmaniose cutânea
Flebotomos
Vetores
Transmissão
Epidemias
Saúde pública
Brasil
Issue Date: 2014
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Citation: LEWNARD, J. A. et al. Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v. 8, n. 10, p. e3283 , 2014
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283
ISSN: 1935-2727
Copyright: open access
Appears in Collections:BA - IGM - Artigos de Periódicos

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