Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/8808
Type
ArticleCopyright
Open access
Sustainable Development Goals
03 Saúde e Bem-EstarCollections
Metadata
Show full item record
FORECASTING TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF CUTANEOUS LEISHMANIASIS IN NORTHEAST BRAZIL
Flebotomos
Vetores
Transmissão
Epidemias
Saúde pública
Brasil
Author
Affilliation
Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil / Women’s Hospital. Center for Women’s Health and Gender Biology. Brigham and Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Weill Cornell Medical College. Division of Infectious Diseases. New York, NY, United States of America
Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of América / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil / Women’s Hospital. Center for Women’s Health and Gender Biology. Brigham and Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Weill Cornell Medical College. Division of Infectious Diseases. New York, NY, United States of America
Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of América / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Centro de Pesquisas Gonçalo Moniz. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Universidade Federal da Bahia. Hospital Universitário Prof. Edgard Santos. Serviço de Imunologia. Salvador, BA, Brasil
Yale School of Public Health. Department of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases. New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
Abstract
Introduction: Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is
known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinelygathered
weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions.
Methodology/Principal Findings: We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural
region of Bahı´a, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models
accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up
to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation.
Significance: These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to
forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological
mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets.
Keywords in Portuguese
Leishmaniose cutâneaFlebotomos
Vetores
Transmissão
Epidemias
Saúde pública
Brasil
Share