Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/17969
Title: Landscape, Environmental and Social Predictors of Hantavirus Risk in São Paulo, Brazil
Authors: Prist, Paula Ribeiro
Uriarte, Maria
Tambosi, Leandro Reverberi
Prado, Amanda
Pardini, Renata
D Andrea, Paulo Sérgio
Metzger, Jean Paul
Affilliation: Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Biociências. Departamento de Ecologia. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Columbia University. Department of Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology. New York City, NY, USA.
Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Biociências. Departamento de Ecologia. São Paulo, SP, Brasil / Columbia University. Department of Ecology, Evolution & Environmental Biology. New York City, NY, USA.
Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Biociências. Departamento de Ecologia. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Biociências. Departamento de Zoologia. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Departamento de Medicina Tropical. Rio de Janeiro, RJ. Brasil.
Universidade de São Paulo. Instituto de Biociências. Departamento de Ecologia. São Paulo, SP, Brasil.
Abstract: Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which are negative-sense RNA viruses in the family Bunyaviridae that are highly virulent to humans. Numerous factors modify risk of Hantavirus transmission and consequent HPS risk. Human-driven landscape change can foster transmission risk by increasing numbers of habitat generalist rodent species that serve as the principal reservoir host. Climate can also affect rodent population dynamics and Hantavirus survival, and a number of social factors can influence probability of HPS transmission to humans. Evaluating contributions of these factors to HPS risk may enable predictions of future outbreaks, and is critical to development of effective public health strategies. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to quantify associations between annual HPS incidence across the state of São Paulo, Brazil (1993-2012) and climate variables (annual precipitation, annual mean temperature), landscape structure metrics (proportion of native habitat cover, number of forest fragments, proportion of area planted with sugarcane), and social factors (number of men older than 14 years and Human Development Index). We built separate models for the main two biomes of the state (cerrado and Atlantic forest). In both biomes Hantavirus risk increased with proportion of land cultivated for sugarcane and HDI, but proportion of forest cover, annual mean temperature, and population at risk also showed positive relationships in the Atlantic forest. Our analysis provides the first evidence that social, landscape, and climate factors are associated with HPS incidence in the Neotropics. Our risk map can be used to support the adoption of preventive measures and optimize the allocation of resources to avoid disease propagation, especially in municipalities that show medium to high HPS risk (> 5% of risk), and aimed at sugarcane workers, minimizing the risk of future HPS outbreaks.
Keywords: Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome
São Paulo
Landscape, Environmental and Social Predictors
Atlantic forest
preventive measures
keywords: Síndrome Pulmonar por Hantavirus
São Paulo
Fatores de risco
Prevenção
Issue Date: 2016
Publisher: Public Library of Science
Citation: PRIST, Paula Ribeiro; et al. Landscape, Environmental and Social Predictors of Hantavirus Risk in São Paulo, Brazil. Plos One, v.11, n.10, e0163459, 18p, Oct. 2016.
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0163459
ISSN: 1932-6203
Copyright: open access
Appears in Collections:IOC - Artigos de Periódicos

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