| Author | Lourenço, José | |
| Author | Maia de Lima, Maricelia | |
| Author | Faria, Nuno Rodrigues | |
| Author | Walker, Andrew | |
| Author | Kraemer, Moritz U. G | |
| Author | Villabona-Arenas, Christian Julian | |
| Author | Lambert, Ben | |
| Author | Marques de Cerqueira, Erenilde | |
| Author | Pybus, Oliver G | |
| Author | Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Júnior | |
| Author | Recker, Mario | |
| Access date | 2017-11-14T15:46:50Z | |
| Available date | 2017-11-14T15:46:50Z | |
| Document date | 2017 | |
| Citation | LOURENÇO, José et al. Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting. eLife, v. 6, e29820, 2017. | pt_BR |
| ISSN | 2050-084X | pt_BR |
| URI | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/23185 | |
| Description | Versão preprint disponível em: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/22849 | pt_BR |
| Language | por | pt_BR |
| Publisher | eLife Sciences Publications | pt_BR |
| Previous version | https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/22849 | pt_BR |
| Rights | open access | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Zika Virus | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Saúde pública | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Epidemiologia | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Transmissão | pt_BR |
| Subject in Portuguese | Microcefalia | pt_BR |
| Title | Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting | pt_BR |
| Type | Article | pt_BR |
| DOI | 10.7554/eLife.29820 | |
| Abstract | The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Université de Montpellier. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement. Institut de Biologie Computationnelle. Montpellier, France. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Centre of Post Graduation in Collective Health. Department of Health. Feira de Santana, BA, Brazil. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom. | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil | pt_BR |
| Affilliation | University of Exeter. Centre for Mathematics and the Environment. Penryn, United Kingdom | pt_BR |
| xmlui.metadata.dc.subject.ods | 03 Saúde e Bem-Estar | |
