Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/23185
Title: Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting
Authors: Lourenço, José
Maia de Lima, Maricelia
Faria, Nuno Rodrigues
Walker, Andrew
Kraemer, Moritz U. G.
Villabona-Arenas, Christian Julian
Lambert, Ben
Marques de Cerqueira, Erenilde
Pybus, Oliver G.
Alcantara, Luiz C. J.
Recker, Mario
Affilliation: University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Université de Montpellier. Institut de Recherche pour le Développement. Institut de Biologie Computationnelle. Montpellier, France.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Centre of Post Graduation in Collective Health. Department of Health. Feira de Santana, BA, Brazil.
University of Oxford. Department of Zoology. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Gonçalo Moniz. Laboratório de Hematologia, Genética e Biologia Computacional. Salvador, BA, Brasil
University of Exeter. Centre for Mathematics and the Environment. Penryn, United Kingdom
Abstract: The Zika virus has emerged as a global public health concern. Its rapid geographic expansion is attributed to the success of Aedes mosquito vectors, but local epidemiological drivers are still poorly understood. Feira de Santana played a pivotal role in the Chikungunya epidemic in Brazil and was one of the first urban centres to report Zika infections. Using a climate-driven transmission model and notified Zika case data, we show that a low observation rate and high vectorial capacity translated into a significant attack rate during the 2015 outbreak, with a subsequent decline in 2016 and fade-out in 2017 due to herd-immunity. We find a potential Zika-related, low risk for microcephaly per pregnancy, but with significant public health impact given high attack rates. The balance between the loss of herd-immunity and viral re-importation will dictate future transmission potential of Zika in this urban setting.
keywords: Zika Virus
Saúde pública
Epidemiologia
Transmissão
Microcefalia
Issue Date: 2017
Publisher: eLife Sciences Publications
Citation: LOURENÇO, José et al. Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting. eLife, v. 6, e29820, 2017.
Description: Versão preprint disponível em: https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/22849
DOI: 10.7554/eLife.29820
ISSN: 2050-084X
Copyright: open access
Appears in Collections:IGM - Artigos de Periódicos

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