Human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) is a retrovirus that causes a persistent infection, and only 0.5-5% of infected individuals will develop HTLV-1-associated myelopathy/tropical spastic paraparesis (HAM/TSP). Therefore, we investigated parameters to discriminate HTLV-1 asymptomatic carriers (ACs) with an increased chance to develop HAM/TSP. Methods: We evaluated integration patterns of HTLV-1 provirus, the relative expression of HTLV-1 tax and HBZ mRNAs and of IFN-γ and IL-10 mRNAs, in addition to proviral load (PVL) levels. Results: HAM/TSP patients presented a higher number of large persistent HTLV-1-carrying clones compared to ACs, and the expression of the HTLV-1 tax and HBZ genes by infected cells was detected at low levels and correlated positively with PVL. In addition, HAM/TSP patients and ACs with high PVL expressed higher levels of IFN-γ mRNA in comparison to IL-10, while ACs with low PVL presented an equilibrate IFN-γ/IL-10 ratio. Conclusions: The presence of large persistent HTLV1-infected clones in association with viral gene expression, even at small levels, could stimulate the intense inflammatory response in HTLV-1-infected individuals. This was supported by a high ratio of IFN-γ/IL-10 relative expression in HAM/TSP patients and ACs with high PVL, indicating that these parameters could aid the identification of ACs with a high risk to develop HAM/TSP.