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2030-12-31
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SHIFTING PATTERNS OF DENGUE THREE YEARS AFTER ZIKA VIRUS EMERGENCE IN BRAZIL
Pinotti, Francesco et al. | Date Issued: 2023
Author
Pinotti, Francesco
Giovanetti, Marta
Lima, Maricelia Maia de
Cerqueira, Erenilde Marques de
Alcantara, Luiz Carlos Júnior
Gupta, Sunetra
Recker, Mario
Lourenço, José
Affilliation
Department of Biology. University of Oxford. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Rene Rachou. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil / Department of Science and Technology for Humans and the Environment. University of Campus Bio-Medico di Roma. Roma, Italy.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Gonçalo Muniz Institute. Genetics and Computational Biology. Laboratory of Haematology. Salvador, BA, Brazil.
Centre of PostGraduation in Collective Health. Department of Health. Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana. Feira de Santana, BA, Brazil.
Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Oswaldo Cruz. Laboratório de Flavivírus. Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil / Fundação Oswaldo Cruz. Instituto Rene Rachou. Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil.
Department of Biology. University of Oxford. Oxford, United Kingdom.
Centre for Ecology and Conservation. University of Exeter. Penryn, United Kingdom.
Biosystems and Integrative Sciences Institute. Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa. Lisboa, Portugal.
Abstract
The Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Brazil in 2015, causing large outbreaks across South America and the Caribbean. In the years that followed, many countries in these areas reported exceptionally low circulation of Dengue virus (DENV), which later resurged in 2018-2019. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain low DENV transmission, yet no consensus has been reached so far. We show that while short-term cross-protection induced by ZIKV can explain the temporary disappearance of DENV, it also predicts, in contrast with observations, a rising mean age of DENV incidence in the post-ZIKV era. We further demonstrate that disease enhancement of DENV, especially in primary infections in ZIKV-positive hosts, is required to remedy these shortfalls. Our results suggest that both population-level immunity to DENV and ZIKV contributed positively to the reduction in mean age of DENV incidence.
Keywords
Zika virus (ZIKV)
Dengue virus (DENV)
Zika virus
Latin America
 
Later version
https://www.arca.fiocruz.br/handle/icict/62689
Citation
FRANCESCO, Pinotti et al. Shifting patterns of dengue three years after Zika virus emergence in Brazil. medRxiv, p. 1-20, Jun. 2023.
DOI
10.1101/2023.05.29.23290597